How Do Civil Wars Happen?
Abstract
Civil wars are among the most devastating and transformative events in human history, reshaping societies and nations. This paper examines the causes, processes, and dynamics of civil wars through a multi-disciplinary lens, incorporating political science, sociology, economics, and history. Drawing on formal and informal logic, historical precedents, and empirical data, it explores the interplay of structural, economic, political, and cultural factors that ignite and sustain internal conflicts. Detailed footnotes provide sources and context to support the analysis.
Introduction
Civil wars occur when organized groups within a state engage in sustained armed conflict over control of government, resources, or territorial autonomy. Unlike interstate wars, civil wars are fought within the borders of a single country, often pitting neighbors, ethnic groups, or political factions against one another. This phenomenon has been studied extensively, revealing that no single factor can fully explain their emergence. Instead, civil wars are the result of an intricate interplay of causes and conditions.
This paper seeks to answer the question: how do civil wars happen? By analyzing historical examples, theoretical frameworks, and contemporary data, it identifies the underlying triggers and mechanisms that lead to these conflicts. The discussion is divided into several sections, addressing structural conditions, political catalysts, economic grievances, and cultural dimensions.
Structural Conditions Leading to Civil Wars
Weak State Institutions
One of the primary structural causes of civil wars is the weakness or failure of state institutions. When governments lack the capacity to enforce laws, provide public goods, or maintain a monopoly on violence, they create a power vacuum that can be exploited by insurgent groups. The concept of "state fragility" is central to understanding civil wars, as illustrated by the collapse of Somalia in 1991.[1] The absence of a functioning government led to the rise of warlord factions and prolonged internal conflict.
Research by Fearon and Laitin (2003) emphasizes the role of weak states in fostering insurgencies. Their study found that countries with low GDP per capita, rough terrain, and poorly trained security forces are more likely to experience civil wars.[2] These factors reduce the state’s ability to project authority, making it vulnerable to rebellion.
Ethnic and Religious Divisions
Ethnic and religious heterogeneity within states can exacerbate tensions, particularly when one group perceives itself as marginalized or oppressed. The Rwandan Genocide of 1994 exemplifies how ethnic divisions can escalate into civil war.[3] Long-standing grievances between the Hutu majority and Tutsi minority, combined with colonial-era policies that institutionalized ethnic hierarchies, set the stage for the violence.
However, ethnic diversity alone does not cause civil wars. Studies have shown that it is the politicization of ethnic identities—often by elites seeking power—that turns diversity into a source of conflict.[4] For example, Yugoslavia’s fragmentation in the 1990s was driven by nationalist leaders who stoked ethnic animosities for political gain.
Political Catalysts
Authoritarian Regimes and Repression
Authoritarian governments that suppress dissent without addressing underlying grievances often sow the seeds of civil conflict. The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, illustrates this dynamic. Decades of authoritarian rule under the Assad regime, coupled with economic stagnation and political corruption, created widespread discontent. The regime’s violent response to peaceful protests escalated the situation into a full-blown civil war.[5]
Political scientist James C. Davies’ "J-curve" theory explains this phenomenon by suggesting that revolutions and civil wars are most likely when periods of rising expectations are followed by sharp declines in living conditions.[6] In Syria, hopes for reform during the Arab Spring were crushed by brutal crackdowns, leading to widespread rebellion.
Lack of Political Inclusivity
Exclusionary political systems that deny representation to significant segments of the population can also trigger civil wars. South Sudan’s civil war (2013–2018) was fueled by political power struggles between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, along with the exclusion of ethnic minorities from governance.[7] The lack of an inclusive political framework exacerbated ethnic tensions and undermined efforts to build a cohesive state after independence in 2011.
Economic Grievances and Inequalities
Resource Scarcity and Competition
Competition over scarce resources, such as land, water, and minerals, is a common driver of civil wars. In Darfur, Sudan, environmental degradation and desertification intensified competition between agrarian communities and nomadic herders, contributing to the conflict that erupted in 2003.[8] The intersection of ecological stress and ethnic divisions created a volatile environment ripe for violence.
Paul Collier’s "greed and grievance" framework highlights how economic incentives can fuel civil wars. According to Collier, resource wealth, particularly in extractive industries like oil and diamonds, can provide funding for rebel groups while creating grievances among marginalized populations excluded from resource benefits.[9] The Sierra Leone Civil War (1991–2002) is a prime example, with control over diamond mines serving as a key objective for both government forces and rebels.
Economic Inequality and Poverty
Widespread poverty and inequality often create fertile ground for civil wars, as they exacerbate perceptions of injustice and limit opportunities for peaceful redress. Countries with stark regional disparities in wealth are particularly vulnerable. For instance, Nigeria’s ongoing conflict with Boko Haram is partly rooted in the economic marginalization of the northeastern region, where poverty rates are significantly higher than in other parts of the country.[10]
Cultural Dimensions and Identity Politics
Historical Narratives and Collective Memory
Historical narratives that emphasize past grievances or injustices can perpetuate cycles of violence. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, competing historical claims to land and sovereignty have fueled decades of civil strife. Each side’s collective memory reinforces its identity and justifies its struggle, making reconciliation difficult.[11]
Role of Media and Propaganda
The media’s role in shaping perceptions and mobilizing populations cannot be underestimated. During the Rwandan Genocide, radio broadcasts by extremist groups incited violence by dehumanizing the Tutsi population and calling for their extermination.[12] In the digital age, social media platforms have been used to spread hate speech and propaganda, as seen in Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis.[13]
The Dynamics of Civil Wars
Insurgency and Counterinsurgency
Civil wars often follow a cyclical pattern of insurgency and counterinsurgency, as both sides attempt to gain control over territory and populations. The Vietnam War (1955–1975) exemplifies this dynamic, with the Viet Cong’s guerrilla tactics countered by U.S.-backed South Vietnamese forces. The asymmetry of power between state and non-state actors frequently prolongs conflicts, as weaker insurgent groups adopt unconventional strategies to offset their disadvantages.[14]
External Interventions
Foreign interventions can significantly alter the trajectory of civil wars, either by prolonging them or hastening their resolution. For example, the Syrian Civil War has been exacerbated by the involvement of multiple external actors, including Russia, the United States, and Iran, each pursuing its own strategic interests.[15] While interventions may aim to stabilize conflict zones, they often introduce new complexities and rivalries.
Conclusion
Civil wars are multifaceted phenomena shaped by a combination of structural weaknesses, political grievances, economic disparities, and cultural tensions. Understanding the interplay of these factors is essential for preventing and resolving such conflicts. By addressing the root causes—strengthening state institutions, promoting political inclusivity, reducing economic inequalities, and fostering reconciliation—the international community can work toward a future where civil wars are less likely to occur.
Footnotes
- Menkhaus, K. (2007). "Governance Without Government in Somalia: Spoilers, State Building, and the Politics of Coping." International Security, 31(3), 74–106.
- Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (2003). "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War." American Political Science Review, 97(1), 75–90.
- Prunier, G. (1995). The Rwanda Crisis: History of a Genocide. Columbia University Press.
- Horowitz, D. L. (1985). Ethnic Groups in Conflict. University of California Press.
- Phillips, C. (2016). The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East. Yale University Press.
- Davies, J. C. (1962). "Toward a Theory of Revolution." American Sociological Review, 27(1), 5–19.
- Rolandsen, Ø. H. (2015). "Another Civil War in South Sudan: The Failure of Guerrilla Government?" Journal of Eastern African Studies, 9(1), 163–174.
- Flint, J., & de Waal, A. (2008). Darfur: A New History of a Long War. Zed Books.
- Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). "Greed and Grievance in Civil War." Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4), 563–595.
- Campbell, J. (2014). Boko Haram: Origins, Challenges, and Responses. Council on Foreign Relations.
- Khalidi, R. (2020). The Hundred Years' War on Palestine. Metropolitan Books.
- Straus, S. (2006). The Order of Genocide: Race, Power, and War in Rwanda. Cornell University Press.
- United Nations. (2018). "Report of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar."
- Westheider, J. E. (2007). The Vietnam War. Greenwood Press.
- Byman, D. (2017). Proxy Wars: Suppressing Violence Through Local Allies. Brookings Institution Press.
