The Likely North American Result(s) to Canada, Mexico, and the United States When Donald Trump Takes Office as the 47th President of the United States
Abstract
This paper examines the potential implications for North America when Donald Trump assumes office as the 47th President of the United States. Drawing on historical precedents, economic trends, political strategies, and international relations, it delves into the expected outcomes for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The analysis considers the geopolitical, economic, and social dimensions of such a presidency and their likely impact on the North American region. Detailed footnotes and citations support this comprehensive discussion.
Introduction
Donald Trump’s presidency (2017–2021) was marked by significant shifts in U.S. domestic and foreign policy. His "America First" agenda, characterized by protectionism, immigration restrictions, and trade renegotiations, had profound consequences for North America. When Trump does assume office again in 2025, his policies would likely build on these themes, affecting Canada and Mexico as key trading partners and geopolitical neighbors. This paper explores the ramifications of such a presidency for the region, analyzing political alignments, economic relationships, and societal impacts.
The Political Landscape
United States: A Continuation of Polarization
Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. political landscape is expected to remain deeply polarized. His rhetoric often targets progressive policies and elites, resonating with his conservative base while alienating others. This dynamic could exacerbate divisions within Congress, hindering bipartisan cooperation on critical issues like immigration reform and trade agreements.
Historically, Trump’s presidency saw an uptick in executive actions to bypass legislative gridlock. For instance, in 2018, Trump issued Executive Order 13841 to address family separations at the border,[1] demonstrating his willingness to act unilaterally. This approach may continue, with potential ramifications for North American policy coordination.
Canada: Navigating a Shifting Ally
Canada’s relationship with the U.S. under Trump’s first term was marked by tension, particularly regarding trade. The renegotiation of NAFTA into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020 introduced provisions favoring U.S. interests, such as stricter automotive rules of origin.[2] A second Trump presidency could intensify protectionist policies, forcing Canada to further diversify its trade partnerships and reduce reliance on the U.S.
Additionally, Trump’s skepticism of multilateral organizations may undermine Canada’s commitment to international cooperation. For example, Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017[3] contrasted sharply with Canada’s climate commitments, creating discord in bilateral environmental policy coordination.
Mexico: Border Security and Economic Pressures
Mexico’s experience with Trump’s presidency included heightened border security measures and trade renegotiations. Policies such as the "Remain in Mexico" program (2019), which required asylum seekers to await U.S. immigration decisions outside its borders, strained bilateral relations.[4] A renewed Trump presidency could see the reinstatement of such measures, further complicating U.S.-Mexico collaboration on migration.
Economically, Mexico’s reliance on U.S. markets makes it vulnerable to Trump’s trade policies. In 2019, the U.S. threatened tariffs on Mexican goods to compel stronger immigration enforcement, illustrating the leverage Trump exerts over Mexico.[5] This pattern may persist, creating economic uncertainties for both nations.
Economic Impacts
Trade Relations and Protectionism
Trump’s "America First" trade agenda emphasized reducing trade deficits and protecting domestic industries. His administration’s imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018[6] strained U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico economic relations. When Trump returns to office, similar measures could resurface, disrupting North American supply chains.
Implications for Canada
Canada’s economy, heavily intertwined with the U.S., would face significant challenges under renewed protectionism. For instance, Canadian exports to the U.S. constituted 73% of its total exports in 2020.[7] Policies favoring U.S. manufacturers could compel Canada to seek alternative markets in Europe and Asia, potentially diminishing North American economic integration.
Implications for Mexico
Mexico’s manufacturing sector, particularly the automotive industry, is deeply connected to the U.S. market. The USMCA’s stricter labor and environmental standards have already posed challenges. A second Trump presidency might introduce further barriers, such as increased tariffs or import quotas, jeopardizing Mexico’s economic stability.
Energy Policy and North America’s Transition
Trump’s energy policies prioritize fossil fuels over renewable energy, contrasting with Canada and Mexico’s commitments to climate action. For example, Trump’s approval of the Keystone XL pipeline (revoked by President Biden in 2021)[8] illustrated his focus on oil and gas. A renewed emphasis on fossil fuels could strain regional environmental collaborations and hinder North America’s transition to sustainable energy.
Geopolitical Dynamics
Security and Immigration
The U.S.-Mexico Border
Trump’s border wall initiative symbolized his stringent immigration policies. By 2021, approximately 452 miles of barriers were constructed,[9] reflecting his administration’s prioritization of border security. A second Trump presidency could see intensified efforts to complete the wall, further militarizing the U.S.-Mexico border.
Such measures may disrupt cross-border trade and negatively affect border communities. The economic interdependence of regions like El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez underscores the need for balanced policies that address security concerns without stifling economic activity.
U.S.-Canada Relations
While U.S.-Canada security collaboration remains strong, Trump’s skepticism of NATO and other alliances raises concerns about North American defense. Canada’s reliance on U.S. military support may necessitate increased defense spending, a politically contentious issue domestically.[10]
Bilateral and Multilateral Relations
Trump’s disdain for multilateral agreements often places North American allies in challenging positions. For instance, his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017[11] forced Canada and Mexico to recalibrate their trade strategies. A second Trump term may perpetuate unilateralism, straining regional cooperation.
Social and Cultural Implications
Polarization and Populism
Trump’s leadership style amplifies populist sentiments, resonating with disaffected populations while deepening societal divides. In Canada, Trump-inspired movements like the "Freedom Convoy" protests (2022)[12] reflect the spillover of U.S. political polarization. Similarly, Mexico’s internal divisions may intensify under external pressures from Trump’s policies.
Migration and Humanitarian Concerns
Stringent immigration policies under Trump’s leadership disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. For instance, the separation of over 5,000 families at the U.S.-Mexico border by 2018[13] sparked international condemnation. A renewed focus on deterrence measures could exacerbate humanitarian crises, prompting calls for greater accountability.
Ethical and Practical Considerations
Balancing Sovereignty and Integration
North America’s interconnectedness necessitates policies that respect national sovereignty while fostering regional integration. Trump’s unilateral actions often disrupt this balance, as seen in the imposition of tariffs without consulting NAFTA partners.[14] Future policies must reconcile these competing interests to ensure sustainable collaboration.
Role of Technology and Innovation
Technological advancements offer opportunities for North American integration. Enhanced digital trade frameworks and cross-border data-sharing initiatives could mitigate the disruptions caused by Trump’s policies. However, such efforts require cooperation, which may prove challenging under a unilateralist administration.
Conclusion
The return of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States would likely have profound implications for North America. While his policies may bolster certain domestic industries and appeal to his base, they risk straining relationships with Canada and Mexico. By understanding the potential economic, geopolitical, and social consequences, policymakers can develop strategies to navigate these challenges and preserve regional stability.
Footnotes
1. Executive Order 13841, "Affording Congress an Opportunity to Address Family Separation," June 20, 2018.
2. United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, signed November 30, 2018.
3. Paris Agreement withdrawal announced June 1, 2017.
4. Migrant Protection Protocols ("Remain in Mexico"), implemented January 2019.
5. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, "U.S.-Mexico Joint Declaration," June 7, 2019.
6. Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, March 2018.
7. Statistics Canada, "Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database," 2020.
8. Keystone XL pipeline permit granted March 2017, revoked January 2021.
9. U.S. Customs and Border Protection, "Border Wall Status," January 2021.
10.NATO Defense Expenditure Data, 2021.
11.U.S. withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership, January 2017.
12.Freedom Convoy protests, Ottawa, Canada, January–February 2022.
13.U.S. Department of Homeland Security, "Family Separation Data," December 2018.
14.Section 232 Tariff Imposition, March 2018.
